The Warning Is Here: Build the Grid Before the Renewables

The warning could hardly be clearer.

Across the world, governments have raced to build wind and solar generation faster than the electricity networks needed to carry and use the power.

Now the consequences are arriving.

Reuters reports that China may have curtailed 360 TWh of wind and solar electricity in the first six months of 2026, according to estimates from Global Energy Monitor and CREA ,  up 49% on the previous year. China’s own official curtailment figures are considerably lower, so the 360 TWh figure should be treated as an independent estimate rather than an uncontested measurement. But the underlying warning remains: insufficient transmission infrastructure is contributing to enormous quantities of potential renewable generation being rejected.

And it isn’t only China.

Reuters reports rising curtailment in Australia, Japan and India as renewable generation expands faster than parts of their electricity systems can absorb it.

Britain should be paying very close attention.

Because NESO has effectively admitted we have the same fundamental problem.

In April, the National Energy System Operator explained why wind generation in the north of Britain sometimes has to be turned down while alternative generation elsewhere is turned up.

Its explanation was devastatingly simple:

«“Put plainly, the cables don’t exist yet.”»

NESO says balancing costs are currently around £2 billion a year and could rise to as much as £8 billion by 2030. More than 60% of those costs are associated with thermal constraints, typically including periods when large amounts of northern wind generation cannot reach demand further south.

Think about what that means.

We are building enormous amounts of generation before completing the infrastructure required to move its electricity.

Then consumers can end up paying to turn generation down , and paying other generators to turn up elsewhere.

That isn’t an argument against electricity infrastructure.

It is an argument for getting the sequence right.

And NESO made another remarkable admission in May.

Its chief executive suggested that major electricity consumers, including AI data centres, could be located in Scotland closer to renewable generation because doing so could reduce the need to turn Scottish wind farms down and other generators elsewhere up.

In other words, the mismatch between where electricity is being generated and where it is required has become significant enough that the system operator is discussing moving future demand closer to generation.

This is exactly why Britain needs a grid-first energy strategy.

Before approving generation after generation, government should be answering some very basic engineering questions:

Can the network carry the electricity?

Where will the demand be?

What transmission reinforcement is actually deliverable?

What firm generation is required when wind and solar output falls?

What will curtailment, balancing, storage and reinforcement really cost?

And most importantly:

How much of the electricity generated will actually reach the consumer?

Installed capacity is not the same thing as usable electricity.

China is providing a huge warning about what can happen when renewable deployment outruns the grid.

NESO is already telling us Britain has constraints of its own.

The cables don’t exist yet.

Perhaps we should build the electricity system before covering more of the countryside with generation that depends upon it.

Shane Oxer.    Campaigner for fairer and affordable energy